We must not forget also that in environments of high uncertainty, direct signals from the environment are not reliable, due to which must be filtered and analyzed to focus their impact and produce adjustments in the strategy; or what would be the same in this case, correct the scenarios. One effect of this strategic approach is that at the same time establishes a course in the middle of the storm, softens stimuli from the environment. Although it is not desirable in scenarios believed a bubble that keep away the company’s reality, if it is important to create a microclimate that protects and allow maximise resource productivity that is operating at the level that will operate. Does not mean only look inward forgetting the environment; It means taking the only environment that is vital and avoid unnecessary contamination. Perhaps, in situations of high uncertainty, it is not advisable to make long term decisions, especially as regards investments. However, if you decide to do so, the risk would be bounded within the boundaries of the stage. This is also true for issues such as spending, research and development, launching products or services and information/publicity campaigns.
We must not forget that the uncertainty is something with which we always live, but that at times it is more uncertain than in others. Scenario analysis must consider the set of assumptions/premises (interest rate, inflation, exchange rate, legal risk, opening up to the outside, political fiscal and monetary levels of regulation and competition and work environment, among others) subjects of uncertainty and adapt them to the conditions of the company. It is recommended that this technique should be complemented with brainstorms. If the levels of participation of the personnel in the process are properly managed, the environment of high uncertainty can generate a relationship of loyalty and belonging as strong as not seen in normal times. The horizon of planning under uncertainty will be given by the most distant event planned, for which has elements of quantification and available feasibility. But beyond the horizon, most importantly will the frequency of revision/updating, as it will provide periodic readings of reality weighted by the stage (and not vice versa).
When the uncertainty is greater than certainty, then we can say say that we are in a situation of exception. When that situation lasts for a long time, we are in crisis. And if this drags on, the range of options is very broad * sources: notes of the Chair; Organizational behavior and international trade, Faces, UC.