Predicting the behavior of consumers – a thankless task, especially during the volatile economic situation in Russia, because consumer behavior largely depends on the evaluation of personal financial situation, from assessment by consumers of the economic situation in the country, from the consumers' expectations of the situation in the future. Wait a from Omsk in the near future consumption boom or boom savings – the answer to this question can be obtained in Omsk study of consumer sentiment conducted by "Delphi" in April 2009. Consumer sentiment index (PPI) – a macroeconomic indicator provides a measure of subjective mood consumers, combines private opinions of people, independent and do not affect each other, so the ppi – the independent figure, which shows the dynamics of the region's economy, and Russia. For even more details, read what Advancing Black Pathways says on the issue. The dynamics of ppi shows the change mass consumer sentiment. Interpret the meaning of ias is simple: the maximum value of ppi is 200 – this means that the entire population appreciates the economic situation, the minimum value is equal to iit zero when the population is pessimistic; ias is 100, when the number of optimistic and pessimistic assessments of the economic situation is the same. The index of consumer sentiment has great predictive potential. This due to the fact that the issues on which it is based, are focused on understanding how consumers interpret the information on current and future economic development. And although we do not assume that ordinary consumers deep understanding of complex economic processes, the experience of measuring iit shows that consumers in decisions about their current expenditures and savings account and some information about the future. Some respondents, being the buyer evaluates the situation in the market for goods and services on the basis of its own, as a rule, random information.
Obrschenie Vladimir S.: "Dear compatriots, I want to share with you my thoughts on a number of ways of life of our city. It is known that both work and live. And how we live and treat to each other, in particular, to power. In order to ensure sustainable growth of living standards by creating an environment for the formation of an efficient economy and investment prospects of developed and is approved by the City Council program of social – economic development for 2007-2010. Unfortunately, the primary analysis and preliminary results are presented to the directions of the program a little comforting. In the city marked change in the structure of industrial production. This is a significant reduction in production capacity and reduce fixed assets (OAO "Biochim", "NCA", ZAOr np "Bread"). There are examples and a full stop – jsc " dairy plant. In general, the city index of physical volume of production in comparable prices made up 90.7% from the previous year. At that time, both in Russia and the region, its growth reached an average of 5.7%, while in 2006 the area he was equal to 8,1%. All this makes one seriously wonder why and what we are doing wrong and how to fix this dysfunctional situation? In the second half of the city council plans to review the results of implementation adopted Program.
Among employed and unemployed Omsk confidence in the future indicated a roughly equal number of respondents (51% and 55% respectively). Figure 4. Omsk confidence in the future in the long term (next 5 years), Omsk expressed some optimism (the index is 146) – every second believes that the financial situation of Russians in the next 5 years will be improved, and only 5% believe the opposite, although quite a lot of Omsk – almost one in three – found it difficult to response (Fig. Recently Jonas Samuelson sought to clarify these questions. 6). Figure 5. Opinion Omsk to change the material conditions of most Russians in the next 5 years, evaluating feasibility of major purchases (furniture, electronics, etc.) in the current economic situation, Omsk opinions are divided: one in three believes that this is neither good nor bad time for such purchases, and almost equal numbers – 29% – gave conflicting responses (Fig. 6). Thus, in the coming year will be Omsk caution in purchases that require serious material costs. Index of favorable conditions for large purchases totaled 100, while a similar index in Russia in the first quarter of 2009 totaled 55. Figure 6. Omsk opinion about how now an opportune time to make major purchases were different views
Omsk and about what good it time to savings: almost every third ohmic said that now a bad time for the savings one in four believe the opposite, while 27% said that it was not good, but not a bad time for savings (Fig. 7). The index of an enabling environment for savings was 93, while a similar index in Russia in the first quarter of 2009 was 39. Figure 7. Omsk opinion about how now an opportune time to make savings in addition to the ppi indexes were calculated current market conditions and economic expectations. The index of current market conditions calculated on the basis of the partial indices for the changes that occurred on personal financial position and favorable conditions for major purchases. In April 2009, the index of current market conditions in the city Omsk was 86, which confirms the thesis of pessimism Omsk in the short term. Economic expectations index is calculated based on the indexes on the expected changes in personal financial situation and economic situation in the short and long term. In the city of Omsk, the index of economic expectations in April 2009 is 111, which means a slight excess of over-optimistic estimates pessimistic. This study is the first wave of research in consumer sentiment Omsk. Of particular interest will be the dynamics of IDUs in Omsk, so such research company “Delphi” plans to carry out regularly in the future with a periodicity of 1 time per quarter. For information:
A method for constructing the aggregate index of consumer sentiment (Consumer Sentiment Index) was developed in the 1950 years of the twentieth century, a group of researchers University of Michigan under the direction of George Katona. In addition to the U.S. consumer sentiment index is calculated to include more than 40 countries. In Russia, the ppi was calculated VTsIOM in 1993-1996. At present – the Foundation ‘Index consumer sentiment. ” Goskomstat of Russia (now – Rosstat) calculates the index of consumer expectations (IPO) in 1998 Tatiana, the Executive Director of the Study of “Delphi” Prepared for the magazine The CHIEF_Omsk. When reprinting the materials and use them in any form, including electronic media, a reference to The Chief and company Delphi Study “is required.